This forecast combines live weather with geographic and ecological modeling to estimate mosquito activity across every U.S. state. Instead of a simple temperature rule of thumb, the model layers 22 measured weather, climate, and terrain signals — refreshed daily from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) via Open-Meteo — with elevation, long-term rainfall climate, and terrain. Because every input is real data rather than a hand-drawn local guess, the same physics applies in Florida, Arizona, or Maine.
Hourly and daily highs and lows. Activity is strongest between 50°F and 95°F, with a sharp dormancy cliff below 50°F.
Warm nights keep mosquitoes active and speed up the egg-to-adult lifecycle — which is also why warm, built-up areas read higher (the urban heat-island effect, straight from the data).
High dewpoints mean more moisture in the air, ideal for breeding and flight. Dry air suppresses activity.
We track 14 days of rain in three windows (last 48 hours, 3–6 days, 7–14 days). Eggs hatch and mature on a delay, so a soaking a week or two ago drives risk now more than today's weather alone.
Each area's long-term rainfall normal (NOAA 1991–2020) anchors how wet or arid it is permanently — the difference between a Gulf Coast metro and a high desert — so dry country stays dry even after a passing storm.
Low, flat land holds standing water; high or sloped terrain drains fast and breeds less. Elevation comes free with every weather point.
Live volumetric soil moisture is the real-time read on standing water — the difference between a wet spell and a flash drought.
Mosquitoes are weak fliers. Sustained winds above 12 mph cut activity; above 20 mph it drops dramatically.
Heavy rain falling right now temporarily grounds mosquitoes, so an actively stormy hour reads lower — the boom comes in the calm, humid days that follow.
Forecasts are modeled estimates for general guidance, not a guarantee of real-world mosquito counts. Data: NOAA GFS via Open-Meteo; NOAA NCEI Climate Normals.
MosquitoCast is a free, live mosquito forecast covering all 50 U.S. states. Instead of a simple temperature rule of thumb, it blends 22 weather, climate, and terrain signals — temperature and overnight lows, dewpoint and humidity, wind, recent rainfall and its multi-day hatch lag, soil moisture, elevation and drainage, and each area's long-term rainfall climate — refreshed daily from NOAA data via Open-Meteo, to estimate where mosquitoes are actually active right now. Pick your state at the top, then zoom in and tap your neighborhood for a block-level read, or jump straight to your state below.
Forecasts are modeled estimates for general guidance, not a guarantee of real-world mosquito counts. Data: NOAA GFS via Open-Meteo; NOAA NCEI Climate Normals.